Management and Economics Research Journal
open access

Do Crude Oil Price Levels Or Its Volatility Matter In Global Food Commodity Price Change?

DOI : 10.18639/MERJ.2021.9900042

Section : Original Research Article

Published Date : Aug 17,2021



This study investigates the effect of crude oil price fluctuations on wheat, sugar, corn, and fertilizers. Results of Markov switching dynamic regression support evidence of two states. State 1, pertains to the low volatility of crude oil prices, and state 2, refers to higher volatility of crude oil prices. At state 1 higher levels of oil prices lead to a decline in food commodity prices, whereas in state 2, higher oil prices cause an increase in food commodity prices. Results of Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH estimates indicate the coefficients of oil price levels are significant and positively associated with the conditional volatility of the four commodity prices, implying that fluctuations in global food commodity prices are not due to oil price volatility but due to the oil price levels attained at the extreme points.

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